Who Will Decide Cannabis Legalization? The Math Will.

LOS ANGELES – When budgets break, ideology stops mattering — and Cannabis becomes inevitable. The Cannabis industry has always been waiting for a savior.

A president.
A bill.
A court ruling.
A movement.

Every few years, the same question resurfaces: who is finally going to save Cannabis?

The answer is less romantic — and far more reliable — than most people expect.

It isn’t a person.
It isn’t a policy.
It isn’t culture.

It’s math.

Cannabis doesn’t get legalized when politicians change their values.
It gets legalized when budgets stop working.

The modern Cannabis industry exists because of pioneers who acted when doing so carried real risk.

During the AIDS crisis in California, figures like Dennis Peron and Brownie Mary pushed medical Cannabis into the open at a time when compassion mattered more than legality. They changed public perception, forced political conversations, and saved lives when stigma was overwhelming and the law was hostile.

That history matters. Without those early activists, there would be no medical Cannabis framework, no ballot initiatives, and no industry to speak of today.

But compassion alone did not end prohibition.

Medical Cannabis spread slowly and unevenly. What accelerated adult-use legalization years later was not a sudden moral awakening among lawmakers — it was fiscal pressure.

Compassion opens doors. It doesn’t balance budgets.

Federal rescheduling matters. It reduces tax friction, improves banking access, and lowers institutional risk. Those changes are meaningful for operators and investors who have carried unnecessary burdens for years.

But rescheduling does not legalize Cannabis.
It does not force states to act.
And it does not close budget gaps.

Rescheduling is part of the answer — not the answer.

States legalize Cannabis when the numbers leave them no alternative.

Across the United States, the pattern has been remarkably consistent.

First, budgets tighten.
Then traditional revenue sources weaken or become volatile.
Voters resist tax increases.
Cutting services becomes politically toxic.

At that point, Cannabis stops being a cultural issue and becomes a spreadsheet problem.

Culture may soften resistance.
Math forces action.

Legalization accelerates when Cannabis becomes a line item instead of an idea.

That dynamic is now playing out nationally.

More than twenty states are experiencing recessionary conditions or heightened fiscal stress. Job cuts have surpassed one million. Corporate bankruptcies are at a fifteen-year high. Household debt has reached record levels, with delinquencies rising. Healthcare costs continue to climb as payroll tax bases weaken. Tariff costs that were delayed in 2025 are now passing through to consumers as margins compress.

The result is straightforward: state and local budget deficits are widening.

Cannabis tax revenue does not solve budget deficits.

It meaningfully reduces the pressure they create.

That distinction is precisely why it works politically.

We no longer need to speculate about scale. States have already proven the numbers.

California has generated more than $7 billion in Cannabis tax revenue since 2018. Illinois produces roughly $2 billion in annual sales and close to half a billion dollars per year in taxes. Michigan operates a $3 billion-plus annual market generating hundreds of millions annually.

These revenues are not symbolic. They fund healthcare programs, support education budgets, and stabilize municipal finances.

Cannabis revenue doesn’t fix broken budgets. It makes them survivable.

Raising traditional taxes has increasingly backfired.

In San Diego, a recent city tax increase aimed at raising roughly $1.5 million fell short. After administrative costs and behavioral pullback, the measure effectively lost money. That outcome is becoming more common as economic elasticity increases.

And it isn’t accidental.

The wealthiest individuals and largest pools of capital remain largely insulated from new taxes. As a result, fiscal pressure keeps shifting downward — onto households, workers, and local businesses.

That approach is economically fragile and politically unstable.

As tariffs compress margins, companies offshore labor.
As healthcare costs rise, states absorb expenses they cannot defer.
As consumption slows, payroll and sales tax bases weaken.

Cannabis revenue moves in the opposite direction.

It stays local.
It recurs annually.
It cannot be offshored.
And it is politically easier than raising taxes or cutting services.

This is the moment when legalization stops being ideological.

Not because politicians become brave.
Not because culture finally wins.

But because math removes the alternative.

There is no Superman coming for the Cannabis industry.

There is no single leader, bill, or organization that saves it.

There is only math — quiet, relentless, and unavoidable.

And when math takes over, Cannabis doesn’t just survive.

It becomes inevitable.

Mark Collins is the founder of Highly Capitalized Network (HCN), an independent business and financial news platform covering Cannabis, hemp, psychedelics, and wellness. With an MBA and CFA background, he focuses on the economic and policy forces shaping Cannabis legalization, capital formation, and market structure.